The Sakhalin Climate Experiment

Abstract

AbstractClimate change was long neglected by Russian politics. However, from 2019 to 2021, substantial changes were observable. During this time, climate change mitigation became both the subject of considerable debate and the launching point for a number of initiatives, with the most striking example being the case of Sakhalin. Beginning in autumn 2020, this Far Eastern island region and oblast was singled out as a Russian pilot area for various climate policies with the aim of achieving carbon-neutrality by the end of 2025. The project—which included a cap-and-trade system—was the subject of controversial debates in Russia before being supported by a federal law that was passed in early March 2022. Against all odds and despite strong objections, it was launched in September 2022. The present paper analyses the background of the Sakhalin climate experiment, the motivations behind it, and the concrete measures foreseen along the path to carbon-neutrality. Moreover, the paper evaluates the credibility of the lofty declared ambitions. In order to do so, more than 100 press reports and official announcements on the topic that appeared between mid-2020 and mid-2023 are tracked. Despite the questionable design of several key elements of the Sakhalin experiment and its sobering implementation record thus far, the fate of the experiment is of vital importance for Russian climate policy prospects as a whole.