Investigation and control strategy for canine distemper disease on endangered wild dog species: a model-based approach

Abstract

AbstractThe canine distemper virus (CDV) is a major threat to the already endangered wild dogs. We propose an evidence-based mathematical model of canine distemper in the wild to predict the rate and possibility of disease spread in wild dogs under a different scenario. We find the endemic and disease-free equilibrium points and the condition for their stability from the model. The bifurcation analysis of the model shows how the endemic equilibrium can be transformed into the disease-free equilibrium through parameters that represent fundamental ecological properties. The sensitivity of these parameters to the secondary disease spread points out the specific interaction rates and a birth rate that should be targeted to reduce the CDV outbreak. We suggest target parameters for controlling the disease outbreak considering the plausibility of manipulating them in terms of implications besides the sensitivity of the parameters. Finally, this article proposes two specific control strategies based on this modeling framework: isolation and birth-control-reintroduction. Since the isolation strategy may be cost-intensive, we modify our model to quantify the isolation rate necessary to reduce the disease outbreak. We suggest that the birth-control-reintroduction strategy based on the proposed model is cost-effective for a small contaminated area. Overall, the models in this study is applied in the field of conservation biology.