Investigating the influence of clustering techniques and parameters on a hybrid PSO-driven ANFIS model for electricity prediction

Abstract

AbstractThe availability of reliable electrical power, which is essential for a comfortable lifestyle worldwide, requires realistic power usage projections for electric utilities and policymakers, leading to the adoption of machine learning-based modelling tools due to the limitations of traditional power usage projection approaches. However, successful modeling of power usage in neuro-fuzzy models depends on the optimal selection of hyper-parameters. Consequently, this research looked at the major impact clustering methods and hyper-parameter modifications on a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model. The study examined two distinct clustering methods and other key hyperparameters such as the number of clusters and cluster radius, resulting in a total of 10 sub-models. The performance of the developed models was assessed using four widely recognized performance indicators: root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of variation of the root mean square error (CVRMSE). Additionally, the robustness of the optimal sub-model was evaluated by comparing it with other hybrid models based on three different PSO variants. The results revealed that the combination of the ANFIS approach and PSO, specifically with two clusters, yielded the most accurate forecasting scheme with the optimal values for MAPE (7.7778%), MAE (712.6094), CVRMSE (9.5464), and RMSE (909.4998).