Non-linear source term and scenario for an operational oil spill model

Abstract

AbstractThis study presents time-varying oil spill discharge functions and scenarios for operational oil spill models. This study prescribes non-linear models based on experimental measurements (Tavakoli et al. in Ocean Eng 38(17–18):1894–1907, 2011) and then upscaled to the spill duration and discharge quantity for actual oil spill incidents. Scenarios consist in collision and grounding incidents for the instantaneous spill mode; light, medium, and severe incidents for the continuous spill mode; spilt, containment, and retention practices for the spill management mode. A performance analysis of deterministic simulations indicates that the non-linear source terms and scenarios present realistic and reasonable results, showing the detailed spill patterns on the surface ocean, tail-off oil sheens along the areas swept by the dispersion and significantly different results when oil spill management and mitigation practices are activated. For oil spill modelling in support of field operations, responders and decision makers should be made aware of the variability of oil sheen spatial patterns induced by the oil spill source term to better interpret simulation results and assess the impact of source uncertainty on the clean-up, mitigation, ecological and socio-economic risk.