Impact of changes in sea surface temperature due to climate change on hurricane wind and storm surge hazards across US Atlantic and Gulf coast regions

Abstract

AbstractCommunities in US coastal regions are threatened by hurricanes more than ever, and the effect of climate change may further aggravate the risk and corresponding losses in the future. This paper investigates the potential impact of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) on hurricane wind and storm surge hazards for the Atlantic and Gulf coast regions. An empirical track model that uses SST as an input is used to account for the effect of temperature variations on hurricane intensity. The storm surge hazard is modeled using Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH). Four projected future climate conditions based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios are adopted to capture the effect of changes in SST on future hurricane intensity. The impacts of changes in hurricane frequency and sea-level rise are also considered. The results show that the projected increase in the average SST will lead to more intense hurricanes by the end of the twenty-first century. An increase in wind speed for all the studied sites with varying degrees is observed. The most significant increase in wind speeds is observed on the northeast Atlantic coast, with some areas showing an increase of more than 60% for high return period winds under the most extreme future climate scenario. This is because a higher increase in SST is observed in such areas, which will lead to more intense hurricanes in the future. An increasing trend is also observed for the storm surge for all the study sites in the future. However, the largest increase in predicted surge heights is mainly seen in the Gulf Coast locations.