Current and future land fire risk mapping in the southern region of Sumatra, Indonesia, using CMIP6 data and GIS analysis

Abstract

AbstractLand fires lead to a deterioration of environmental quality and have perilous social and economic aspects. One method for mitigating this hazard is to determine the range of fire risk areas. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the current and potential future fire risk in the Ogan Komering Ilir, southern Sumatra region of Indonesia, using CMIP6 data and geospatial technology. In order to analyze fire risk areas, the Landsat 8 satellite image from 2021 (as a baseline period) was used. Variables like the normalized difference moisture index (NDMI), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the land surface temperature (LST) were extracted from the satellite image. Then, the standard precipitation index (SPI) was determined using rainfall data from meteorological stations. For future period prediction (periods 2021–2040 and 2041–2060), this study used future climate data from the CMIP6. By overlaying these variables, current and future fire risk zone maps were produced. The results obtained showed that in the current period, around 726.4 km2 (4.2%) of the area was at high fire risk, then 5,621.3 km2 (32.7%) and 10,835.3 km2 (63.1%) were at moderate and low fire risk zones, respectively. Furthermore, for the future period, this study estimated there was an increase in high fire risk areas of about 14% during 2021–2040 and 30% during 2041–2060. This was recorded in the southern and northern parts of the study area. Fire risk areas were strongly associated with NDMI, NDVI, and LST. The study's findings may be useful for land fire management in fire-prone areas.