Rainfall trend analysis and weather forecast accuracy in selected parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Abstract

AbstractClimate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various effects on people's environmental and socioeconomic conditions. In the agricultural economy that is susceptible to natural changes, its impact is more profound. Therefore, climate change directly affects society in different ways, and society must pay a price. Climate change, especially the changes in annual temperature and rainfall, has attracted widespread attention worldwide. The variability of these factors or the magnitude of fluctuations varies according to location. Therefore, in the context of climate change, especially in countries dominated by rainfed agriculture, studying the trend of meteorological variables is essential to assess climate-induced variations and propose feasible adaptation approaches. Focusing on this fact is the main goal of this research study was to determine the rainfall trend and the accuracy of predicted temperature at three particular stations of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kp) Province, Pakistan. For this purpose, rainfall and temperature data were provided by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, for the period 1960–2020. Two types of nonparametric techniques, Sen’s slope estimate and the Mann–Kendall test, were applied to determine a trend in the average monthly and annual rainfall. The results of the annual rainfall trend analysis showed that Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan stations showed a positive increasing trend, while the monthly rainfall trend showed a negative decreasing trend for all stations. The trend was statistically significant for Peshawar and Saidu Sharif stations. The accuracy of predicted and actual temperature and rainfall indicated that mostly over-forecast occurred at Saidu Sharif and Peshawar. Most of the precipitation and temperature records showed under forecast for Dera Ismail Khan, but some over-prediction has also occurred. Graphical abstract