Investigating extreme hydrological risk impact on water quality; evidence from Buffalo catchment headwater, Eastern Cape, South Africa

Abstract

Abstract Evidence from increasing mineralization, micropollutant concentrations, waterborne epidemics, an algal boom, and dissolved organic matter has provided substantial evidence that climate change impacts water quality. While the impact of the extreme hydrological event (EHE) on water quality (WQ) has aroused considerable research interest, research uncertainty has been premised on WQ data scarcity, a short time frame, data non-linearity, data structure, and environmental biases on WQ. This study conceptualized a categorical and periodic correlation using confusion matrices and wavelet coherence for varying standard hydrological drought index (SHDI; 1971–2010) and daily WQ series (1977–2011) of four spatially distinct basins. By condensing the WQ variables using chemometric analyses, confusion matrices were assessed by cascading the SHDI series into 2-, 3-, and 5-phase scenarios. 2-phase revealed an overall accuracy (0.43–0.73), sensitivity analysis (0.52–1.00), and Kappa coefficient (− 0.13 to 0.14), which declines substantially with the phase increase, suggesting the disruptive impact of EHE on WQ. Wavelet coherence depicted the substantial ($${R}_{n}^{2}\left(u,s\right)\ge 0.5$$ R n 2 u , s ≥ 0.5 ) mid- and long-term (8–32 days; 6–128 days) co-movement of streamflow over WQ, confirming the varying sensitivity of WQ variables. Land use/land cover mapping and the Gibbs diagram corroborate the eventful WQ evolution by EHE and their spatial variability concerning landscape transformation. Overall, the study deduced that hydrologic extreme triggers substantial WQ disruption with dissimilar WQ sensitivity. Consequently, suitable chemometric indicators of EHE impacts such as WQ index, nitrate-nitrogen, and Larson index at designated landscapes were identified for extreme chemodynamics impact assessment. This study proffers a recommendation for monitoring and managing the impact of climate change, floods, and drought on water quality.