Assessing current and future available resources to supply urban water demands using a high-resolution SWAT model coupled with recurrent neural networks and validated through the SIMPA model in karstic Mediterranean environments

Abstract

AbstractHydrological simulation in karstic areas is a hard task due to the intrinsic intricacy of these environments and the common lack of data related to their geometry. Hydrological dynamics of karstic sites in Mediterranean semiarid regions are difficult to be modelled mathematically owing to the existence of short wet episodes and long dry periods. In this paper, the suitability of an open-source SWAT method was checked to estimate the comportment of a karstic catchment in a Mediterranean semiarid domain (southeast of Spain), which wet and dry periods were evaluated using box-whisker plots and self-developed wavelet test. A novel expression of the Nash–Sutcliffe index for arid areas (ANSE) was considered through the calibration and validation of SWAT. Both steps were completed with 20- and 10-year discharge records of stream (1996–2015 to calibrate the model as this period depicts minimum gaps and 1985–1995 to validate it). Further, SWAT assessments were made with records of groundwater discharge and relating SWAT outputs with the SIMPA method, the Spain’s national hydrological tool. These methods, along with recurrent neural network algorithms, were utilised to examine current and predicted water resources available to supply urban demands considering also groundwater abstractions from aquifers and the related exploitation index. According to the results, SWAT achieved a “very good” statistical performance (with ANSE of 0.96 and 0.78 in calibration and validation). Spatial distributions of the main hydrological processes, as surface runoff, evapotranspiration and aquifer recharge, were studied with SWAT and SIMPA obtaining similar results over the period with registers (1980–2016). During this period, the decreasing trend of rainfalls, characterised by short wet periods and long dry periods, has generated a progressive reduction of groundwater recharge. According to algorithms prediction (until 2050), this declining trend will continue reducing groundwater available to meet urban demands and increasing the exploitation index of aquifers. These results offer valuable information to authorities for assessing water accessibility and to provide water demands in karstic areas.