Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region

Abstract

AbstractThe Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24 °C/100 year, 3.28 °C/100 year, 5.57 °C/100 year, and 7.40 °C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Southeast Asia and Tibetan Plateau, respectively.