Drought risk probabilistic models based on extreme value theory

Abstract

AbstractThe article presents original, probabilistic models for the quantification of drought risk, based on generalized distribution functions for the distribution of maximum values as well as the standardized precipitation index. Using the models, a probabilistic measurement of drought risk has been made for three regions over four 5-year periods for each region. Three measurement points located in Poland were selected as a case study. The study provides an innovative approach in the field of probabilistic models of quantification; moreover, drought risk levels have been calculated for the selected locations. Furthermore, the method may be used for creating indexes for any climatic region subject to study.