A Novel Approach to Uncertainty Quantification in Groundwater Table Modeling by Automated Predictive Deep Learning

Abstract

AbstractUncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important benchmark to assess the performance of artificial intelligence (AI) and particularly deep learning ensembled-based models. However, the ability for UQ using current AI-based methods is not only limited in terms of computational resources but it also requires changes to topology and optimization processes, as well as multiple performances to monitor model instabilities. From both geo-engineering and societal perspectives, a predictive groundwater table (GWT) model presents an important challenge, where a lack of UQ limits the validity of findings and may undermine science-based decisions. To overcome and address these limitations, a novel ensemble, an automated random deactivating connective weights approach (ARDCW), is presented and applied to retrieved geographical locations of GWT data from a geo-engineering project in Stockholm, Sweden. In this approach, the UQ was achieved via a combination of several derived ensembles from a fixed optimum topology subjected to randomly switched off weights, which allow predictability with one forward pass. The process was developed and programmed to provide trackable performance in a specific task and access to a wide variety of different internal characteristics and libraries. A comparison of performance with Monte Carlo dropout and quantile regression using computer vision and control task metrics showed significant progress in the ARDCW. This approach does not require changes in the optimization process and can be applied to already trained topologies in a way that outperforms other models.