A fragile and divided European Union meets Covid-19: further disintegration or ‘Hamiltonian moment’?

Abstract

AbstractDespite being symmetric in its very nature, the Covid-19 shock is affecting European economies in a very asymmetric way, threatening to deepen the divide between core and peripheral countries even more. It is not Covid-19 itself, however, but the contradictions within the EU’s growth model and institutional architecture that would be to blame for such an outcome. The dramatic impact of the economic crisis brought on by the pandemic and the threat that it poses to Eurozone survival seem to have forced a reluctant Germany into action: a minor step, but an important signal. This note analyses the crossroads currently facing Europe—the risk of disintegration vis-a-vis the opportunity for a ‘Hamiltonian moment’—discussing possible future scenarios in the light of past developments.