1. On the demographic transition theory see: C. P. Blacker, “Stages in Population Growth,”The Eugenics Review, 39 (1947), pp. 81–101; C. M. Cipolla,The Economic History of World Population (Penguin Books, 1962); A. J. Coale and E. M. Hoover,Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1958); D. O. Cowgill, “The Theory of Population Growth Cycles,”American Journal of Sociology, 55 (1949), pp. 163–70; — “Transition Theory as General Population Theory,”Social Forces, 41 (1963), pp. 270–74; K. Davis, “The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History,”Population Index, 29 (1963), pp. 345–65; F. W. Notestein, “The Population of the World in the Year 2000,”Journal of the American Sociological Association, 45 (1950), pp. 335–45; W. Petersen, “The Demographic Transition,”American Sociological Review, 25 (1960), pp. 334–47; W. C. Robinson, “The Development of Modern Population Theory,”The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 23 (1964), pp. 376–92; N. B. Ryder, “The Conceptualization of the Transition in Fertility,”Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology, 22 (1957), pp. 91–5; J. J. Spengler, “Population Theory,” in B. F. Haley ed.,A Survey of Contemporary Economics, II (Homewood, Illinois: R. D. Irwin, 1952), pp. 83–128; G. J. Stolnitz, “The Demographic Transition from High to Low Brith Rates and Death Rates,” in R. Freedman ed.,Population: The Vital Revolution (Garden City, New York: Garden City Books, 1964), pp. 30–46; United Nations,The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends (New York City, 1953).
2. The transition theory involves the transition from one demographic equilibrium to another. There has been some discussion concerning what is meant by equilibrium. Originally equilibrium was intended as stability in total population brought about by equality of birth and death rates, and it is in this sense that the expression is used in this paper. Lately, however, the demographic equilibrium is meant to signify stability of the growth rate over time. See W. C. Robinson, “The Development of Modern Population Theory,”American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 23 (1964), pp. 376–92, and K. Mayer, “Fertility Changes and Population Forecast in the United States,”Social Research, 26 (1959), p. 347.
3. See W. A. Lewis,Theory of Economic Growth (London: G. Allen and Unwin, 1963), p. 306 ff., where stages and factors of the decline in death rates are discussed. See also K. Davis, “The Amazing Decline in Mortality in Underdeveloped Areas,”American Economic Review, 46 (1956), pp. 305–18.
4. Cf. H. Leibenstein,Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth (New York City: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1963), p. 159–65; R. E. Weintraub, “The Birth Rate and Economic Development: An Empirical Study,”Econometrica, 40 (1962), pp. 812–17; also Robinson,op. cit., p. 387 ff.
5. Coale,op. cit., p. 12.