Is there Consumer Risk-Pooling in the Open Economy? The Evidence Reconsidered

Abstract

AbstractWe revisit the evidence on consumer risk-pooling and uncovered interest parity. Widely used single-equation tests are strongly biased against both. Using the full-model, Indirect Inference test, which is unbiased and has Goldilocks power according to Monte Carlo experiments, we find that both the risk-pooling hypothesis and its weaker UIP version are generally accepted as part of a full world DSGE model. The fact that the risk-pooling hypothesis, with its implication of strong cross-border consumer linkage, has passed this test with generally the highest p-value, suggests that it deserves serious attention from policy-makers looking for a relevant model with which to discuss international monetary and other business cycle policies.