Is natural variability really natural? The case of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation investigated by a neural network model

Abstract

AbstractIs Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation a genuine representation of natural variability in the climate system? Or perhaps is it strongly forced by external drivers? In this paper, a data-driven attribution investigation has been performed for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) behaviour in the past via a machine learning technique, NN modelling. We clearly see a forced nature of AMO in the last 150 years, with a strong contribution of the forcing coming from anthropogenic sulphates, which induces its typical oscillating behaviour. The following original application of our model to future predictions of the AMO behaviour shows that it shall probably lose its oscillating characteristic features. The only way to recover them is to consider an unrealistic increase in anthropogenic sulphates in the future under a strong mitigation scenario, and possibly a low-power solar regime. Due to the established influence of AMO on climate and meteorological phenomena in several regions of the world, our results can be important to better understand the past and envisage several future scenarios.