Emerging extreme heat conditions as part of the new climate normal

Abstract

AbstractAs a result of global warming, extreme heat conditions have become more frequent and severe. This will likely continue or accelerate in the future, particularly under high radiative forcing scenarios. In the present study, based on an ensemble of global climate model simulations, we identify the absolute historical extremes expressed by several temperature indices. Considering projections under two future pathways (SSP1$$-$$ - 2.6, SSP5$$-$$ - 8.5), we investigate to what extent extreme heat conditions will become predominant during the rest of the century. The timing of a transition to prevailing hot weather extremes is critical for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies; therefore, we also identify the projected first year of such a transition, as well as the persistence in subsequent decades. Different aspects of heat extremes are investigated, including both maximum and minimum temperature. For some climate zones, our results highlight that regardless of mitigation efforts, hot weather conditions will be at least similar but likely more harsh compared to historical extremes within the following decades. By the end of the century, under a business-as-usual pathway, successive years will be much more extreme than the most severe conditions in the recent past virtually everywhere.