Modified data classification for extreme values in Şen’s innovative trend analysis: A comparative trend study for the Aegean and Eastern Anatolia Regions of Türkiye

Abstract

AbstractThe increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has worsened global warming, and marked changes have been observed in meteorological and climatic events, especially since the early 2000s. Trend analysis studies are important for determining changes in meteorological and climatic events over time. This study investigated the trends of maximum precipitation and minimum temperature in the Aegean Region and Eastern Anatolia Region of Türkiye by conducting an innovative trend analysis (ITA), the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and linear regression analysis (LRA). As a method, ITA has been used together with traditional methods in the last decade, and its advantages have been demonstrated in comparative trend studies. An important contribution of ITA is that it can categorize datasets according to their size (low, medium, and high). The classification technique of the ITA method includes dividing the sorted dataset into three equal parts and separately examining the trends of low, medium, and high data values. This approach is reasonable for datasets with low skewness (or normally distributed series). However, the normal distribution acceptance of ITA data classification is insufficient for trend analysis of data series with extreme values. Therefore, we propose a modified data classification method to rationally examine skewed datasets with the use of quartiles. Our study was performed for the trend analysis of maximum rainfall and minimum temperature data in two regions located in the west and east of Türkiye showing different climatic characteristics. In the first part of the study in which the numerical trend analysis of ITA was evaluated, the MK and LRA methods showed similar results, whereas the ITA detected trends at a greater number of stations owing to its sensitivity feature in detecting trends. In the second part, which included data classification in trend analysis, the equal split data classification used in the ITA and the modified data classification proposed in the study were compared. The comparative results of the trend analysis of the maximum rainfall and minimum temperature data showed the superiority of the proposed data classification in examining the trend of extreme values, especially for maximum rainfall data with relatively high skewness.