Author:
Fraser Hannah,Borquez Annick,Stone Jack,Abramovitz Daniela,Brouwer Kimberly C.,Goodman-Meza David,Hickman Matthew,Patterson Thomas L.,Silverman Jay,Smith Laramie,Strathdee Steffanie A.,Martin Natasha K.,Vickerman Peter
Abstract
AbstractTijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020–2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up < 10% of new infections. Projections suggest 93.8% of new infections over 2020–2029 will be due to unprotected sex between MSM or unsafe injecting drug use. Prioritizing interventions addressing sexual and injecting risks among MSM and PWID are critical to controlling HIV in Tijuana.
Funder
National Institute on Drug Abuse
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
University of San Diego Center for AIDS Research, an NIH funded program
NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of interventions and Behavioural Science
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Infectious Diseases,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Social Psychology
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