1. T. Bayes, An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. 53, 330–418 (1763). Reprinted in Biometrika 45, 293–315 (1958) and in ‘Studies in the History of Statistics and Probability’ E.S. Pearson and M.G. Kendall eds., C.Griffin and Co. Ltd., London 1970 and in ’Two papers by Bayes with commentaries’ W.E. Deming ed., Hafner Publishing Co., New York, 1963
2. P.S. de Laplace, Mémoire sur la probabilité des causes par les événements. Mém. de math. et phys. présentés à l’Acad. roy. des sci. 6, 621–656 (1774). Reprinted in [3], vol. 8, pp. 27–65. An English translation can be found in [4]
3. P.S. de Laplace, Œuvres complè tes de Laplace (Gauthier-Villars, Paris, 1886–1912). 14 volumes
4. S.M. Stigler, Laplace’s 1774 memoir on inverse probability. Statist. Sci. 1, 359–378 (1986)
5. P.S. de Laplace. A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (Dover, New York, 1951). Original title Essay philosophique sur les probabilités