The Russo-Ukrainian War and the Brazilian Perspective on the International Order

Abstract

AbstractIn the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war, which Western policymakers widely perceive as a critical juncture shaping the global order and exacerbating the rift between the West and the Global South, this paper seeks to explore whether Brazil, a key voice of the Global South, has reassessed its perspectives on the global order and its aspirations for its role in the wake of the war. Not only is Brazil a key player in the Global South, set to host the G20 and BRICS summits in 2024, but its strategically ambiguous response to the war, which has been relatively consistent under the Bolsonaro and subsequent Lula administrations, has surprised the West and has often been misinterpreted as explicit support for Russia. Based on semistructured interviews with Brazilian diplomats and foreign policy experts, this paper argues that Brazil did not see the Russo-Ukrainian war as a trigger for a major shift in the international order, but rather as symptomatic of a widespread perception in the Global South that the so-called rules-based order defended by the West is inadequate to address global challenges and disruptions. Seeing the war as a confirmation of the need to reform the multilateral architecture, Brazil feels emboldened to actively promote reform processes and foster consensus among Global South countries. Engagement in informal organisations and on issues such as climate change and inclusive social development, where Brazil holds substantial influence, will be central to its efforts to enhance its soft power and promote reform of multilateral institutions.