Understanding Nigeria’s transition pathway to carbon neutrality using the Multilevel Perspective

Abstract

AbstractNigeria, at the 2021 Conference of Parties (COP26) meeting in Glasgow announced a commitment to transitioning her carbon economy to reach net-zero by 2060. One year after, the country’s drive for carbon neutrality is shrouded with uncertainties despite numerous policies targeted at it. This study employed the Multilevel Perspective (MLP) and PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) analytical framework to assess the politics of low-carbon transition in Nigeria. We used a triangulation of literature review, document analysis, and survey to build the theoretical, historical, and empirical bases for the enquiry. The findings show that the current low-carbon transition process is characterised by few potential drivers and many barriers with critical uncertainty effects. The key drivers are: Nigeria’s potentials for carbon sink/nature-based solutions; vast renewable energy resources; strong niche market demand; and huge opportunities for employment in the renewable energy sector. The major barriers are: poor management of the energy regime; weak infrastructural base; dependence on global climate fund; fossil fuel-based economy; cost of renewable energy options; and impacts of climate change, among others. The barriers with critical impacts outweigh the potential drivers at the ratio of 4:1 thereby playing greater role in characterizing Nigeria’s transition pathway as the ‘reconfiguration transition pathway’ within the ‘emergent transformation context.’ Therefore, unless the identified regime barriers are eliminated, the current transition pathway may not deliver the low-carbon targets. Considering the huge mitigation potentials of Nigeria’s vast forests and natural ecosystem for carbon sink, the study recommends investment in nature-based solutions in synergy with energy system management as the most convenient and cost-effective pathway to attaining carbon neutrality by 2060.