A prognostic nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival of patients with initially diagnosed metastatic gastric cancer: a validation study in a Chinese cohort

Abstract

Abstract Background Few studies have been designed to predict the survival of Chinese patients initially diagnosed with metastatic gastric cancer (mGC). Therefore, the objective of this study was to construct and validate a new nomogram model to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in Chinese patients. Methods We collected 328 patients with mGC from Northern Jiangsu People’s Hospital as the training cohort and 60 patients from Xinyuan County People’s Hospital as the external validation cohort. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify risk factors, and a nomogram was created to predict CSS. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) in the training cohort and the validation cohort. Results Multivariate Cox regression identified differentiation grade (P < 0.001), T-stage (P < 0.05), N-stage (P < 0.001), surgery (P < 0.05), and chemotherapy (P < 0.001) as independent predictors of CSS. Nomogram of chemotherapy regimens and cycles was also designed by us for the prediction of mGC. Thus, these factors are integrated into the nomogram model: the C-index value was 0.72 (95% CI 0.70–0.85) for the nomogram model and 0.82 (95% CI 0.79–0.89) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70–0.86) for the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA also demonstrated adequate fit and ideal net benefit in prediction and clinical applications. Conclusions We established a practical nomogram to predict CSS in Chinese patients initially diagnosed with mGC. Nomograms can be used to individualize survival predictions and guide clinicians in making therapeutic decisions.