Nowcast models for train delays based on the railway network status

Abstract

AbstractSwitches and crossings (S&C) or turnouts are one of the important systems in the Swedish railway traffic maintenance planning. For immediate diverting of the trains, they need to be predict the working condition for short time duration, also known as nowcasting and for long time duration, also known as forecasting. The prediction of the condition of turnout is useful for traffic planning without disrupting to the traffic. Hence, the main purpose of this paper is to predict the condition of S&Cs for shorter and longer duration. In order to achieve it, at first, statistical analysis is carried out to find the root causes of failures. Secondly, non-homogenous Poisson process is applied to nowcast and forecast the working condition. The results of this study will guide the train dispatchers to plan the train timetable according the present traffic.