The impact of demographic change on value set validity and obsolescence

Abstract

Abstract Purpose To investigate the contribution of demographic trends in countries’ age and gender composition to value set validity and obsolescence. Methods Time-trade off (TTO) valuation data from 3 EQ-5D-3L value sets of 20 years or older from the United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States were re-analyzed using Bayesian heteroskedastic Tobit models with sex and age group-specific scale parameters. Original value sets were obtained by weighting the original preference structures with the countries’ original demographic composition at the time of the data collection. Updated value sets were created using the original preference structure weighted using the countries’ most recent demographic composition. The differences between the original and updated value sets were monitored and compared based on 95% credible intervals. Results The gender and age composition of the investigated countries changed in all 3 countries over time. The modelled health state preferences also depended on the respondents’ gender and age. However, the overall impact of this demographic change on the investigated value sets was negligeable in all 3 countries and this finding was robust to accounting for the impact of ethnicity trends in the United States. Conclusion Value sets may become redundant and obsolete for various reasons, but demographic change was not identified as a contributing factor.