Assessing the environmental contribution of clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) rice in the presence of insect pest uncertainty

Abstract

AbstractAdopting genome editing with the trait of pest resistance contributes to sustainable development by reducing pesticide use. Developed by Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) technology, CRISPR rice is resistant to two of its most destructive insect pests. However, there exists a trade-off between pest resistance and lower potential yield. In the presence of uncertainty of pest severity, adopting CRISPR rice demonstrates positive environmental benefits at its optimal planting ratio, estimated based on a microeconomic model extended with environmental externalities of rice cultivation. We estimate the optimal planting ratio to be 37%, with the environmental benefit of co-planting CRISPR rice to be 560 million US dollars annually in China. The environmental benefit accounts for 4–22% of the total value of co-planting CRISPR rice in the Monte Carlo simulations. Regional heterogeneity regarding optimal planting ratio and environmental benefit is studied for 12 major rice-cultivating provinces in China. We conclude with policy implications that policymakers need to consider the vast environmental benefit of CRISPR rice adoption to have a more comprehensive view of its economic and environmental market potential, contributing to the heated debate on regulating CRISPR technology in China and worldwide.