Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions

Abstract

Abstract Most statistical agencies consult with experts in some manner prior to formulating their assumptions about the future. Expert judgment is valuable when there is either a lack of good data, insufficient knowledge about underlying causal mechanisms, or apparent randomness in trends. In this paper, we describe the expert elicitation protocol developed by Statistics Canada in 2018 to inform the development of projection assumptions. The protocol may be useful for projection makers looking to adopt a formal approach to eliciting expert judgments, or for producing probabilistic projections, where it is necessary to obtain plausible estimates of uncertainty for components of population growth.