Continualization of Probabilistic Programs With Correction

Abstract

AbstractProbabilistic Programming offers a concise way to represent stochastic models and perform automated statistical inference. However, many real-world models have discrete or hybrid discrete-continuous distributions, for which existing tools may suffer non-trivial limitations. Inference and parameter estimation can be exceedingly slow for these models because many inference algorithms compute results faster (or exclusively) when the distributions being inferred are continuous. To address this discrepancy, this paper presents Leios. Leios is the first approach for systematically approximating arbitrary probabilistic programs that have discrete, or hybrid discrete-continuous random variables. The approximate programs have all their variables fully continualized. We show that once we have the fully continuous approximate program, we can perform inference and parameter estimation faster by exploiting the existing support that many languages offer for continuous distributions. Furthermore, we show that the estimates obtained when performing inference and parameter estimation on the continuous approximation are still comparably close to both the true parameter values and the estimates obtained when performing inference on the original model.