Dichrostachys cinerea Growth Rings as Natural Archives for Climatic Variation in Namibia

Abstract

AbstractGlobal Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to forecast climate change in Southern Africa, and the evidence shows that the region is going to warm up by up to 2° by the year 2050. Namibia is one of the driest countries in Southern Africa and is at a high risk of becoming much drier than current situation by 57%. Very few studies have been carried out in Southern Africa to show actual impacts of climate change. Practical applicability of GCMs at a local spatial scale remains limited due to the coarse nature of the models. Hence, improvement of the GCMs must begin with better understanding of the local microclimates and how they respond to regional circulation patterns. In many regions of Southern Africa, the lack of potential tools to access old climatic records precludes the estimation of climate trends beyond 100 years. In spite of these impediments, there are areas with excellent tree species such as Dichrostachys cinerea that are able to be used as climatic archives for specific time periods. In this chapter, the study shows that the combination of tree ring chronologies and precipitation records is a powerful methodology in climate modeling in the southern hemisphere and reveals nuances that show climate change. The evaluation of data from tree rings coupled with precipitation trends reveals signals that show that climate has indeed been changing over the past ten decades and will have a negative impact on livelihoods. These data can now be used in predictive models that can be used to project future scenarios and assist policy makers and planners to see how climate will evolve in the next 50–60 years.