A Methodology for Future Scenario Planning

Abstract

AbstractThe future is influenced by various possible developments and is hence difficult to predict. Still, each company or institution bases its vision and strategic progress on certain assumptions for the future. In order to prepare for various developments of the future, it is reasonable to consider different possible scenarios while building a future vision. Thus, this chapter focuses on the methodological approach for the generation of future scenarios showing what the surroundings for supply chains might be like in a time horizon until 2030. This integrates various political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental influences and changes. The methodological framework required for generating scenarios is set by a combination of quantitative and qualitative scenario planning methodologies. Close coordination and collaboration between production and logistics guides the underlying scenario design to focus the context on supply chains. While considering trends described in Kalaitzi et al. 2020, this approach results in a set of macro scenarios, each describing a possible future development until 2030. The macro scenarios range from scenarios with progressive developments to regressing or stagnating evolutions.