High Hopes Amid Hard Realities: Defense AI in Russia

Abstract

AbstractNotwithstanding the challenges on the battlefield in Ukraine, as well as economic and political struggles at the home front, Russia continues the pursuit of selected defense application of AI technologies. Traditionally, Russia has viewed advanced technology as crucial for achieving military effectiveness and strategic advantage. Seen from Moscow, gaining or losing ground in the ongoing contest for cutting-edge military technology and more effective weapon systems will have far-reaching consequences for warfare and for national security, and, consequently, also for Russia’s position in the international hierarchy of power. Indeed, Vladimir Putin has been personally invested in pushing the AI development forward, driven by several other key factors. These include the expectation that AI can help Russia to narrow the military capability gap with the West faster, as well as the concern that adversaries may exploit new vulnerabilities that defense AI is creating. Moreover, lessons Russia has learned in Ukraine to date appear to carry an unequivocal message: AI-enabled weapons systems and infrastructure provide a clear battlefield advantage. This chapter begins with an examination of the Russian understanding of AI and Moscow’s incentives for engaging in what is seen as a global technology race. Subsequently, it analyses the evolving Russian approach to defense AI as articulated in key strategic documents shaping Russia’s AI strategy and policy. Next, it delves into Russia’s methods for developing defense AI. With its traditional state-driven, top-down innovation model, Russia is an outlier among global AI contenders. Yet to incorporate advances achieved in the Russian civilian sector, the model has been modified, partly emulating the US and Chinese approaches to defense innovation. This chapter further explores Russia’s priorities for fielding and operating selected defense AI systems. Finally, it addresses long-standing systemic problems and practical constraints that hinder the defense innovation in Russia. Despite these impediments, Russia is expected to continue prioritizing AI development in selected defense applications.