Surviving the Limits Imposed by a Changing Climate: The Case of Urban Drought and Water Supply Sustainability in Phuthaditjhaba

Abstract

AbstractIn urban environments, sustainable access to water resources depends on many factors, including climatic, social and economic conditions characterizing the surrounding environment. For urban areas in mountain environments these conditions are compounded by stressors resulting from climate change, such as drought, as well as physical remoteness, economic marginalization and poverty, phenomena which impose limits on access to water. Based on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1, 6 and 13, which were part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted by UN member states in 2015, in this paper we assess the impact of urban drought on water security in the mountain city of Phuthaditjhaba, South Africa. World Meteorological Organization - Time Series (4.04) climate (precipitation and maximum temperature) data for Phuthaditjhaba were analysed for trends for the period between 1960 and 2019. Trends of Standardized Precipitation Index values and Maximum Temperatures were used to determine how climate change has affected Phuthaditjhaba’s sources of water supply, namely the Fika Patso and Metsimatsho dams. A sample of Landsat images from the same period was used to determine how the two water bodies have responded to the change over time. The results indicate that the two reservoirs have shrunk due to climate change induced drought, thus worsening water insecurity in the city. The results also indicate that mean annual stream discharge is projected to decrease by 39% for the 2016–2045 period. Lastly, based on government reports on water shortages in Phuthaditjhaba and other secondary sources, the results also indicate that though 90% of Phuthaditjhaba’s population has access to potable water, only 55% of the residents have access to reliable water supply. We conclude that without urgent government intervention the future of the livelihoods of the poor majority of Phuthaditjhaba’s residents will remain bleak due to dwindling water resources, making SDG 6, and those influenced by it, unattainable.