The Influence of Policy Risk on Swiss Wind Power Investment

Abstract

AbstractWind energy is one of the most affordable and fastest-growing sources of electricity worldwide. As a large share of wind power generation occurs in the winter season, it could make an important contribution to seasonal diversification of domestic electricity supply. However, the development of wind energy projects in Switzerland has been characterized by long and complex administrative processes, with the planning phase taking up to a decade, more than twice as long as the European average. The objective of this chapter is to quantify the risk premium that lengthy permitting processes imply for wind energy investors in Switzerland and to suggest ways to reduce policy risk. The data have been gathered through 22 confidential interviews with project developers and several cantonal permitting agencies as well as a review of federal and cantonal regulatory documents. Furthermore, a discounted cash flow model was built to compare the profitability indicators (IRR, NPV) and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of a reference case to scenarios with various risks—for example, delays in the permitting process, downsizing the project, or changes in the regulatory environment such as phasing out feed-in tariffs. The model shows that the highest profitability risks are related to the availability of a feed-in tariff, but other changes in the permitting process can also have a critical impact on the project’s bottom line. The findings illustrate a significant policy risk premium in the pre-construction stage faced by wind energy project developers in Switzerland.