Extreme Longevity in Quebec: Factors and Characteristics

Abstract

AbstractThe recent decrease in adult and late-life mortality led to a very rapid increase in the number of centenarians within low mortality countries. This chapter examines the increase in the number of centenarians in Quebec (Canada) across birth cohorts (1871–1901), and outlines some of the underlying demographic mechanisms involved. We study the demographic situation of centenarians from Quebec (Canada) using all aggregated data available since 1871 (census data, vital statistics, and population estimations). Census data and population estimates are taken from Statistics Canada, while vital statistics come from the Canadian Human Mortality Database (CHMD, 2014 www.bdlc.umontreal.ca) and the Institut de la statistique du Québec.With demographic indicators such as the centenarian ratio, the survival probabilities and the maximal age at death, we try to demonstrate the remarkable progress realised in old age mortality. We also analyze the determinants of the increase in the number of centenarians in Quebec: increase in the size of birth cohorts, increase in the probabilities of surviving from birth to age 80 and from age 80 to 100 for specific cohorts, change in the number of persons aged 100 and over relative to the number of persons reaching exact age 100 and net change due to migration and other factors (errors). This decomposition shows that, among the factors identified, the improvement in late-life mortality (from age 80 to 100) is the main determinant of the increase of the number of centenarians.This study stresses the importance of monitoring the number as well as the quality of life of this emerging population of centenarians. It also helps us gain greater perspective on what should be expected in the coming years among low mortality countries such as Canada.