What a Military Alliance Between Russia and China Would Mean for NATO

Abstract

AbstractAre Russia and China an emerging alliance or eternal rivals? And what would it mean for NATO? NATO reacted to the Russian aggression against Ukraine with a paradigm shift called “NATO Adaptation.” At the 2014 Wales Summit, it increased its responsiveness with the “Readiness Action Plan,” the 2016 Warsaw Summit strengthened its deterrence and defense posture, and the 2018 Brussels Summit re-designed NATO’s Command Structure toward collective defense. Although embedded in a “360-degree approach,” all key defense elements of NATO’s adaptation have been primarily focused on Russia, which was recognized from March 2014 on as potential threat to the territorial integrity of the Eastern European members. However, this changing of the paradigm was based entirely on the understanding that Russia alone poses a serious military threat to the alliance. There was never any consideration given to the question of what it would mean if Russia were supported by a like-minded great power such as China, nor to the question of what simultaneous aggressions—one by Russia in Europe and another by China in the Indo-Pacific—would mean for NATO. Hence, the answers to these questions are of high relevance to NATO’s further adaptation to the new geopolitical realities.