Access Patterns in Romanian Higher Education. A Story of Asymmetry and Polarization

Abstract

AbstractThe sharp decline in fertility rates that has occurred in Central and Eastern Europe in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of communist regimes has generated a realignment of social, economic and political realities across the region. Romania is no exception, and the ageing of its population has influenced a sharp reversal of the admissions boom of the 90s and 2000s. Universities are struggling to attract enough students while overall participation in higher education, when measured by the share of 30 to 34-year-olds with at least a bachelor’s degree, places Romania last among the 27 EU members. Drawing upon data from the National Matriculation Registry (RMU), the paper aims to analyse trends in student admissions and map university recruitment flows. The paper uses network analysis of existing student populations to identify universities with demographically vulnerable recruitment basins. The paper then discusses the impact of these vulnerabilities and analyse the wider challenges posed for universities by changing demographics and low cohort intakes. We find that variations in attractivity and demographic transformations combine to fuel a realignment of the structure of the Romanian Higher Education system that is already visible in enrolment patterns. This asymmetry does not only impact higher education but also development patterns and higher education funding policies. On the one hand, the paper informs policymakers on how existing demographic trends and recruitment flows are likely to influence the economic viability of existing universities, as well as how the currently low level of tertiary education attainment is reflected at a regional level. On the other hand, the paper encourages universities to rethink their competitive advantages in this revealed complex competition system to make better data-driven, evidence-based decisions when it comes to recruitment strategies in a context of scarcity and uncertainty.