Comparative Analyses of Local Historical and Future Climate Conditions Important for Reindeer Herding in Finnmark, Norway and the Yamal Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Russia

Abstract

AbstractIn Finnmark, average winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperatures in the period 1961–1990 were about −5 °C at the coast, slightly lower in the fjords, and typically 10 °C lower inland. In the Yamal Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) average winter temperatures were even lower, ranging from −20 to −25 °C. Temperatures are presently increasing in the area, and towards the end of this century, winter temperatures in the YNAO may, under a medium high emission scenario, resemble the previous conditions in the interior of Finnmark, while inland Finnmark may experience conditions that were earlier found along the fjords. The snow season in 1961–1990 typically lasted from 6 to 8 months in Finnmark. Higher temperatures lead to a reduced snow season and model calculations indicate a 3-month reduction along the coast, where it is shortest today, while the inland snow season may be one month shorter towards the end of the century. Along the coast, a 60% reduction in the winter maximum snow amount is projected towards the end of the century. In the interior of Finnmark, considerably smaller changes are projected in maximum snow amounts, as average precipitation is projected to increase, implicating increased snowfall during winter. Maximum snow amounts may even increase slightly at some inland sites. Higher winter temperatures will lead to changes in the snow structure. Compared to herders’ reports, the SNOWPACK model successfully reproduced high-density snow layers during the past decades. To describe future snow structures of relevance for reindeer grazing conditions in Finnmark and YNAO, more detailed climate projections are needed.