1. T. Adrian, A. Estrella, and H.S. Shin, “Monetary Cycles, Financial Cycles and the Business Cycle,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 421, January 2010. A study on the forecasting ability of the yield curve.
2. T. Adrian, R K. Crump and E. Moench. (2013). “Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 340. A view on pricing the yield curve/term structure of interest rates.
3. Alberto Alesina, and Allan Drazen, “Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?” American Economic Review 81 (December 1991): 1170–1188. The authors make the case that stabilizations are delayed because of the debate on who bears the burden of the stabilization.
4. Alan J. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Peter R. Orszag, and Samra R. Potter, “Budget Blues: The Fiscal Outlook and Options for Reform.” In Henry Aaron, James Lindsay, and Pietro Nivola, eds., Agenda for a Nation, 109–143. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. 2003.The authors argue that the federal government will need to make large adjustments to its budget. These adjustments include spending reductions, tax increases and implicit or explicit reneging on government debt through default or hyperinflation.
5. Laurence Ball, Douglas Elmendorf, and N. Gregory Mankiw, “The Deficit Gamble,” Journal of Money Credit and Banking 30 (November 1998): pp. 699–720. A view on the fiscal outlook for the U.S. economy.