The EU's Dependence on Russian Energy—A Force that Divides or Unites the Union?

Abstract

AbstractThis chapter analyzes how the European Union (EU) and Russia's interdependence has developed with a focus on Russian energy exports to the EU. The main question is whether this will lead to division or greater cohesion in the EU when Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has forced the EU to reconsider its dependence on Russian energy. The chapter details the different types of energy EU countries imported from Russia and discusses the sanctions implemented by both sides. The effects of sanctions will be felt both in Europe and in Russia in the short term, but in the longer term, Russia is the big loser both in terms of relations with the EU and its own economic development. Energy exports are a fundamental driver of the Russian economy and without major institutional changes, the country will not be able to rid itself of its dependence on fossil energy exports. For the EU, the major challenge will be to deal with the internal fissures that are exposed when it reconsiders its relationship with Russia. The authors argue that this is a historic opportunity to accelerate the green transition in the EU while improving the Union's security by making itself independent of Russian energy.