Tarafsız: Turkey’s Impartial Stance Vis-a-Vis Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Abstract

AbstractTurkish officials stress that their neutral and impartial, tarafsız, position enables Ankara to mediate in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The country has been one of the key external political and diplomatic players in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine since February 2022. Ankara has acted as a mediator since the early days of the invasion and tried—so far, successfully—to balance being pro-Ukrainian without being openly anti-Russian. This chapter maintains that Turkey’s attitude confirms the academic literature’s descriptions of Turkey’s foreign policy as growing more independent and seeking to balance its external relations. In particular, the Turkish government’s motives revolve around three main foreign policy objectives: boosting status (through mediation activities), carrying out a balancing strategy in its external relations, and pursuing economic interests through trade engagement with Moscow. Meanwhile, diffuse anti-Western sentiments and a severe economic crisis seemingly have led the Turkish society towards more inward-looking positions and a certain lack of empathy towards Ukrainians. All in all, questions remain on the sustainability of Turkey’s neutral approach, especially in the case of a further military—and, possibly, nuclear—escalation.