Outlook for the Forest-Based Bioeconomy

Abstract

AbstractThe state of the world’s managed forests is determined by the societal demands for wood resources and other ecosystem services. The forest-based sector is experiencing a number of structural changes, which makes the task of looking ahead important, but challenging. One of the main trends in the forest-based industries is diversification. On one hand, this refers to the emergence of new factors influencing the demand for forest-based products, which leads to substitution between forest-based products and alternative products. On the other hand, it refers to new market opportunities for forest-based industries in, for example, the construction, textiles, packaging, biochemicals and biofuels markets. As the importance of some of the traditional forest-based industries, such as communication papers, is declining, and new opportunities are simultaneously emerging, the sector will not necessarily be dominated by single sectors in the long term. However, research illuminating the possible impacts of the expected structural changes of the forest-based sector remains scarce. The uncertainties in the future outlook of the forest-based sector also imply great uncertainties in the demand for roundwood globally, and by extension, the extent of trade-offs between different ecosystem services and land uses.