Author:
Mahmoud W. M.,Elfiky D.,Robaa S. M.,Elnawawy M. S.,Yousef S. M.
Abstract
AbstractThis paper presents a standalone predictive model for Atomic Oxygen (AO), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and other space-environment parameters. The prediction is based on the numerical method of Holt–Winter’s triple smooth exponential forecasting of atmospheric constituents. Solar cycle 25 is likely to show about the same activity as cycle 23. The corresponding AO-flux–solar-activity correlation coefficients for altitudes 100, 200, and 300 km are: 0.62, 0.53, and 0.48, respectively, while the correlation coefficients for higher altitudes are lower than 0.48, an advantage that makes them more favorable for LEOs due to the harmful corrosive effects.
Funder
National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Space and Planetary Science,Astronomy and Astrophysics
Reference23 articles.
1. Baker, D., Daly, E., Daglis, I., Kappenman, J., Panasyuk, M.: SpWea 2, S02004 (2004).
2. Bhowmik, P., Nandy, D.: Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions. Nat. Commun. 9, 5209 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0
3. Bobra, M., Ilonidis, S.: Astrophys. J. 821, 127 (2016)
4. Dantas, T., Oliveira, F., Repolho, H.: Ar transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods. J. Air Transp. Manag. 59, 116–123 (2017). ISSN 0969 6997. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.12.006.
5. Dooling, D., Finckenor, M.: Material selection guide lines to limit atomic oxygen effects on spacecraft surfaces (1999). NASA/TP-1999-209260, NASA Technical Publication