Higher quantiles of sea levels rise faster in Baltic Sea Climate projections

Author:

Dieterich Christian,Radtke HagenORCID

Abstract

AbstractAbsolute sea levels in the Baltic Sea will rise under the influence of climate warming, similar to those in the world ocean. For extreme sea levels, there are indications that they will rise even faster than mean sea levels, but that topic is still controversially discussed and existing studies point into different directions. We analyzed a regional climate model ensemble for the Baltic Sea for future sea level changes. We find that the rate of change differs between high sea levels and the average: In the eastern part of the Baltic Sea, the 99th percentile of sea level was predicted to rise faster than the median. In the south-western part, the relation was opposite. Thus, our simulations predict a change not only in the sea level mean, but also in its distribution. This pattern was almost consistent between the individual ensemble members. We investigated the 99th percentile as a proxy for extreme sea levels, since their partially stochastic nature limits the predictive skill of our 20-member ensemble. Our findings imply that adapting coastal protection to mean sea level change only may be regionally insufficient.

Funder

Myndigheten för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap

Länsförsäkringars Forskningsfond

Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas

Swedish National Space Agency

Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde (IOW)

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Atmospheric Science

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3