Mechanisms of Future Predicted Changes in the Zonal Mean Mid-Latitude Circulation

Abstract

AbstractState-of-the-art climate models predict the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation will undergo a poleward shift and seasonally and hemispherically dependent intensity changes in the future. Here I review the mechanisms put forward to explain the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation response to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. The mechanisms are grouped according to their thermodynamic starting point, which are thought to arise from processes independent of the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation response. There are 24 mechanisms and 8 thermodynamic starting points: (i) increased latent heat release aloft in the tropics, (ii) increased dry static stability and tropopause height outside the tropics, (iii) radiative cooling of the stratosphere, (iv) Hadley cell expansion, (v) increased specific humidity following the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, (vi) cloud radiative effect changes, (vii) turbulent surface heat flux changes, and (viii) decreased surface meridional temperature gradient. I argue progress can be made by testing the thermodynamic starting points. I review recent tests of the increased latent heat release aloft in the tropics starting point, i.e., prescribing diabatic perturbations, quantifying the transient response to an abrupt CO2 increase and imposing latitudinally dependent CO2 concentration. Finally, I provide a future outlook for improving our understanding of predicted changes in the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation.