A note on the potential impact of aviation emissions on jet stream propagation over the northern hemisphere

Abstract

AbstractThe goal of the study was to investigate if aviation emissions could influence the climate and weather by modifying the chemical composition of the atmosphere and subsequently, the radiative balance. To carry out the set objective, we used the global environmental multiscale atmospheric chemistry model with comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry that is interactive with the radiation calculations. The model was run for two current climate scenarios, with and without aviation emissions. The results of the study indicate that the most significant difference in the jet stream propagation occurred during the winter season, and the smallest was observed during summer. Changes in the jet stream propagation vary by season and region. During the colder time of the year, the eddy-driven jet stream tends to shift poleward, while during the spring season the equatorward shift was observed in a scenario with aviation emissions. Analysis of regional changes shows that the most noticeable differences occurred over the Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and Asia. The changes over the oceans changed the occurrence of the North Pacific and Bermuda–Azores Highs. Over Asia (Siberia), a stronger and more poleward drift of the eddy-driven jet stream was observed in a scenario without aviation emission. Dissimilarity in the jet stream velocity was found only during the winter seasons when in a scenario with aviation emission, the jet stream velocity was 10 m/s smaller as compared to the scenario without aviation emission.