Abstract
AbstractIn the present work we introduced and analyzed the most basic transmission SEI (susceptible-exposed-infective) model for a directly transmitted infectious disease caused by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The SEI model is modeling as a Markov chain and we computed a closed form formula of the mean first passage times (MFPT’s) vector arising from non-homogeneous Markov chain random walk (NHMC-RW) on the non-negative integers. Some particular cases, which lead to a relationship between the elements of the MFPT’s vectors. An efficient algorithm applied on mathematica program for computing MFPT’s vector of the NHMC-RW is given.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference13 articles.
1. Kermack, N.O., Mackendrick, A.G.: Contribution to mathematical theory of epidemics. P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A.Mat. US. 1927:700–721
2. World Health Organization: naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it (2020)
3. Elbaz, I. M., Sohaly, M. A., El-Metwally, H.: Modeling the stochastic within-host dynamics SARS-CoV-2 infection with discrete delay. Theory Biosci. 1–10 (2022)
4. Kemeny, J.G., Snell, J.L.: Finite markov chains. Springer, New York (1976)
5. Hunter, J.J.: The computation of the mean first passage times for Markov chains. Linear Algebra Appl. 549, 100–122 (2018)