Assessment of drought disaster risk in Boro rice cultivated areas of northwestern Bangladesh

Abstract

Drought risk has become a major threat for sustaining food security in Bangladesh; the particularly northwestern region of Bangladesh. The objective of the study is to assess drought disaster risk on Boro paddy cultivated areas of northwestern Bangladesh using drought disaster risk index (DDRI) model. The sensitivity of Boro paddy to droughts during crop-growing seasons and irrigation recoverability were employed to reflect vulnerability condition. Moreover, the threshold level of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was applied to evaluate the drought hazard on Boro paddy cultivated areas in the northwestern region of Bangladesh. The probability density function (PDF) was used to show the threshold level of drought hazard. The results show that drought hazard is comparatively severe in Ishardi area compared to other northwestern regions of Bangladesh. The drought disaster risk is higher in Ishardi and Rajshahi areas than Rangpur and Dinajpur areas. Although Ishardi area is more prone to high drought risk, at the same time, the recoverability rate is also quicker than any other areas. The relationship between Boro rice yield rates and drought disaster risk is insignificant. The average Boro yield rates during the period of 1976 to 2016 are 19% for Ishardi and Rajshahi areas, 20% for Rangpur and Dinajpur areas and 21% for Bogra respectively according to the total irrigation area. The outcomes of the study can aid to adopt drought condition under changing the climate and also provide guidance for future drought mitigation in the northwest region of Bangladesh.