Assessment of potential efficient development of the World ocean ferromanganese nodules in the context of global copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese market evolution

Abstract

The paper analyzes implications of ferromanganese nodule mining and copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese production for their land-based producers. Potential scenarios are considered for consumption development, onshore production and long-term development of these metals’ mineral bases through 2035. It is shown that each metal market could be undersupplied over this period; this shortage can be offset by deepsea production. However, conditions and deficit emergence for various metals vary greatly. As a result, coincidence of nodule mining with the earliest deficit signs in the remaining markets will lead to oversupply, which will negatively affect onshore production, new mining and exploration projects; this will also reduce profitability of deepsea mining even making it uneconomic. It is not until 2030 that nodule mining involving copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese production can be implemented with no negative effects for market players.