A COMPARATIVE OBSERVATIONAL STUDY OF PROGNOSTIC FACTOR SCORES TO PREDICT MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY IN PATIENTS OF PERFORATED PEPTIC ULCER

Abstract

Background: Perforation is one of the common complication of peptic ulcer disease which is associated with signicant morbidity and mortality. It is a disease which needs emergent surgical intervention. Accurate and early identication of high-risk patients with Perforated Peptic Ulcer is important for risk stratication. Here, we calculate the three prognostic factor scores, (i) The Boey Score, (ii) The Peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, and (iii) The quick sequential organ failure assessment (q-SOFA) score, preoperatively to predict postoperative outcome. Aims & Objective: The aim of the study is to identify patients with an increased risk of adverse outcome, so that we can target the level of perioperative monitoring and treatment in high-risk patients. Also, to determine and compare the ability of three prognostic factor scores to predict morbidity and mortality in patients of Perforated Peptic Ulcer. Methods: Aprospective comparative observational study was conducted comprising of 92 patients with conrmed perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) attending the emergency ward of Department of General Surgery between February 2019 to July 2020. After conrmation of diagnosis, risk stratication according to the three prognostic factor scores (Boey score, PULP score, and q-SOFA score) was done. Acomparison was made between each score through calculation of positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). We used receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve in my study to estimate the predictive ability of each scoring system. Results: The study include 92 patients. Female 41.3% and Male 58.7%. The mean age was 45.38 years. The most common site of PPU was the rst part of duodenum - D1 (64.1%). The most common operative procedure done was the Grahm's patch repair. The morbidity rate was 28.3%. Overall mortality rate was 10.9%. The AUROC for morbidity prediction was 0.791 for Boey score, 0.918 for PULP score, and 0.61 for q-SOFAscore. The AUROC for mortality prediction was 0.829 for Boey score, 0.865 for PULPscore, and 0.602 for q-SOFAscore. Conclusion:Boey score and PULP score helps in accurate and early identication of PPU patients with an increased risk of adverse outcome. q-SOFA score cannot signicantly predict morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. Overall, PULP score performs best but Boey score is crude and simple to calculate and is used to assess the patient rapidly