Affiliation:
1. Intern Doctor, Medical College Baroda – The M. S. University of Baroda.
2. Faculty, Medical College Baroda – The M. S. University of Baroda.
3. Professor & Dean, Medical College Baroda – The M. S. University of Baroda.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: To study region-wise monthly incidence, alteration in seasonal trend and geographical distribution of Swine
Flu (H1N1) cases in district of western India for two years. After Ethics Committee approval, a cross-sectionalMATERIAL AND METHOD:
study was carried out with analysis of two years' demographic prole, geographical distribution and seasonal variation of real time Reverse
Transcription–Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) - H1N1 positive cases. Annual change in pattern of positive cases was analyzed by
independent sample student's t - test (P < 0.05). Out of 3,524 Seasonal Flu cases investigated by Inuenza A (H1N1) RT-PCR, total 1,600RESULT:
Seasonal Flu–positive cases were analyzed. On looking at Age-wise distribution of patients, during rst year, maximum number of Seasonal Flu
positive cases was from age group of 1 to 10 years, while during next year, maximum number of cases was from age group of 51 to 60 years. During
rst year of epidemic, incidence of 836.12 cases per 1,00,000 population per year was detected with peak during winter as compared to 121.49
cases per 1,00,000 population per year with peak during monsoon in second year of epidemic. DuringINTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION:
Epidemic of Seasonal Flu, Swine Flu (H1N1) positive cases got reduced annually, and seasonal pattern of H1N1 positive cases changed with peak
during monsoon as compared to conventional winter peak. Overall change in seasonal trend, pediatric age distribution suggests need of in depth
analysis of development of herd immunity, and risk factors involved for monsoon peak with alarming precaution by epidemic preparedness.
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